Saturday, May 7, 2016

Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd @ 18.10

1.Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd is a 10 rupee face value government of India owned telecom company recently  government had approved compensation of Rs.458.04 Crore to MTNL for surrender of 800 MHz CDMA spectrum out of which Rs. 428.95 Crore has been sanctioned for disbursal vide DOT letter dated March 28, 2016 and MTNL has received the amount in its account on March 30, 2016 so this is the reason why I choose this stock for pre result penny share tip. 

2. Year high of Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd is 24.50 year low was 14.45 and stock traded at 18.10, Year high/ low ratio is below 2  so I think price of this stock is stable for fresh buy .
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3. Promoters of Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd hold 57.03 % stocks Promoters holding is good with nil pledged stock ( MTNL is PSU Stock gove of india is promoter of this stock) See full list of public shareholding including FII and DII here:-
4.Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd MTNL not give any dividend after 2009 this is the reason that why I put this call under my penny share blog instead of short term trading call or multibagger call blog.
5. Base price of Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd is 20.59 So Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd still traded 12.09 % below from base price.
6. No any bonus issue right issue and bulk deals is recorded  in last 2 year.
Many of my followers ask that why I avoid a stock with bulk deals? See this bulk deal example in MTNL at 2006 when someone sell his 34 lac share of MTNL @ 194 see this example here:-
So when you compare 2006 price 194 with CMP 18.10 then you understand why I think bulk deal in sell side or bulk deal with large players is a sign of speculation and this will happen in more then 80% cases where price down within 1 year of bulk deal. 
7. Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd net sale per share of FyY14-15 is 53.96.
8.Net sale per share 53.96 is also good and MTNL is traded near 66.45% below  from his net sale per share.
Please note that I knew that MTNL is a huge debt stock and continue posted huge loss in balance sheet so please do not ask this type of question in comments that why I give a call on this high debt loss making stock,
I posted this call because I think that we easily achieve our fundamental target price of 32.21 when  government start to take step for BSNL IPO and merger with BSNL and MTNL and as I tell in point 2 that due to CDMA spectrum compensation this stock have possibility to turn arround from loss to profit.
9. Book value of Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd is 32.82 So in book value term this stock is a value buy at CMP.
8. Overall I think MTNL may achieve his target 32.21 for a long term view over 1 year read my book for more detail about how to calculate fundamental target of a stock?
9. 200 DMA of Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd is 18.46 So at CMP 18.10 Stock traded very closer to a positive breakout above 200 DMA , ( already cross his 30 and 50 DMA on closing basis)
10. My recent updates :- BGR Energy System Ltd
11. Disclaimer:- This is not an advisory service to buy or sell. The contents of “this research report” are only for educational purposes. No liability is accepted for any content in “this research report”. The author is neither a registered stockbroker nor a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity, index or any other financial instrument at any time.The author recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions. Please  read full disclaimer at the bottom of my blog.
12.Discloser:- I Mahesh Chander Kaushik author of this research report is an existing research analyst and passed NISM certification for research analysts. I am also registered under SEBI(RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014 ( SEBI Registration Number INH 100000908 ) hereby disclose about my financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial interest:- 1 Me and my associates or relatives have not hold any share of Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd so my personal interest is not included in this stock. 2. Me and my associates or relatives have not any actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more securities of the subject company ( Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd). 3. Me and my associates or relatives have not any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report. 4. Me and my associates or relatives have not  received any type of compensation from the subject company(Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd) in the past twelve months. 5. I am not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company ( Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd). 6. I have been not engaged in market making activity for the subject company (Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd).

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