नुकसान वाले शेयरों को स्मार्ट तरिके से ऐवरेज आउट करके बाहर कैसे निकलें? How to Average Out Loss Making Stocks

 नुकसान वाले शेयरों को स्मार्ट तरिके से ऐवरेज आउट करके बाहर कैसे निकलें?

शेयर बाजार में निवेश करते समय अक्सर ऐसा होता है कि हम किसी शेयर को खरीद लेते हैं और उसके बाद वह लगातार गिरने लगता है। ऐसे में निवेशक अक्सर 'गिरते हुए चाकू' (Falling Knife) को पकड़ने की गलती करते हैं और हर गिरावट पर शेयर खरीदते जाते हैं, जिससे उनका नुकसान और बढ़ जाता है। इस ब्लॉग पोस्ट में हम एक बेहद स्मार्ट और सुरक्षित तरीके पर चर्चा करेंगे, जिससे आप नुकसान वाले शेयरों को सही समय पर 'ऐवरेज आउट' (Average Out) करके मुनाफे या कम से कम बिना नुकसान के बाहर निकाल सकते हैं।

क्यूमूलेटिव ऐवरेज (Cumulative Average) क्या है? सरल शब्दों में समझें तो क्यूमूलेटिव ऐवरेज किसी शेयर के रोज़ाना क्लोजिंग प्राइस (Closing Price) का एक लगातार चलने वाला औसत है। साधारण मूविंग ऐवरेज (SMA) में हम केवल कुछ तय दिनों (जैसे 50 या 200 दिन) का औसत लेते हैं, लेकिन क्यूमूलेटिव ऐवरेज में हम एक तय तारीख से लेकर आज तक के हर दिन के डेटा को जोड़ते जाते हैं। इससे शेयर के ट्रेंड का एक बहुत ही स्पष्ट और स्मूद (Smooth) चित्र मिलता है, जिससे बाजार का रोज़ाना का उतार-चढ़ाव (Noise) छुप जाता है और असली ट्रेंड दिखाई देने लगता है।

सालाना उच्चतम स्तर (52-Week High) से गणना क्यों? जब कोई शेयर अपने 52-वीक हाई (सालाना उच्चतम स्तर) से गिरना शुरू करता है, तो वह एक बड़े डाउनट्रेंड में चला जाता है। हमारी रणनीति यह है कि हम उस उच्चतम स्तर वाली तारीख से लेकर आज तक का क्यूमूलेटिव ऐवरेज निकालें।

नियम बहुत सख्त और सीधा है: जब तक यह औसत लगातार गिर रहा है, हमें शेयर को हाथ नहीं लगाना है (AVOID / HOLD)। हम ऐवरेज आउट करने का विचार तभी करेंगे जब यह क्यूमूलेटिव ऐवरेज लगातार (जैसे पिछले 10 दिनों में) बिना रुके बढ़ने लगे। एक या दो दिन की बढ़त 'बुल ट्रैप' (Bull Trap) या 'फेक ब्रेकआउट' हो सकती है, इसलिए "लगातार बढ़ता हुआ क्रम" ही सही सिग्नल है।

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गूगल शीट में अपना ऑटोमैटिक सिस्टम कैसे बनाएं? (Step-by-Step)

आप इस पूरे सिस्टम को गूगल शीट में ऑटोमेट कर सकते हैं ताकि आपको रोज़ाना मैन्युअल गणना न करनी पड़े। आइए इसके जादुई फॉर्मूले समझते हैं:

स्टेप 1: स्टॉक का नाम सेट करना अपनी गूगल शीट के सेल B1 में अपने शेयर का नाम लिखें (जैसे RELIANCE)। आप चाहें तो 'Data Validation' का उपयोग करके अपने 250 या 500 शेयरों की एक ड्रॉपडाउन लिस्ट भी यहाँ बना सकते हैं ताकि बार-बार नाम टाइप न करना पड़े।

स्टेप 2: 52-Week High की तारीख निकालना सेल B2 में यह फॉर्मूला डालें, जो अपने आप पिछले 1 साल में उस दिन की तारीख निकाल लेगा जब शेयर अपने सबसे ऊंचे भाव पर था:

=TO_DATE(INDEX(SORT(GOOGLEFINANCE(B1, "high", TODAY()-365, TODAY()), 2, 0), 2, 1))

स्टेप 3: ऐतिहासिक डेटा प्राप्त करना अब सेल C1 में यह फॉर्मूला डालें। जैसे ही आप एंटर दबाएंगे, कॉलम C में तारीखें (Date) और कॉलम D में उस दिन के क्लोजिंग प्राइस (Close Price) आ जाएंगे:

=GOOGLEFINANCE("NSE:" & B1, "close", B2, TODAY())

स्टेप 4: डायनामिक क्यूमूलेटिव ऐवरेज की गणना अब सबसे महत्वपूर्ण काम। सेल E2 में यह फॉर्मूला डालें। यह फॉर्मूला अपने आप कॉलम D के डेटा को पढ़ेगा और बिना माउस से नीचे ड्रैग किए, पूरे डेटा का क्यूमूलेटिव ऐवरेज निकाल देगा:

=MAP(SEQUENCE(COUNT(D2:D)), LAMBDA(n, AVERAGE(OFFSET(D2, 0, 0, n))))

स्टेप 5: स्मार्ट 'BUY' सिग्नल (लगातार बढ़त की जांच) यह सुनिश्चित करने के लिए कि हम किसी ट्रैप में न फंसें, हम चेक करेंगे कि क्या पिछले 10 दिनों से औसत लगातार बढ़ रहा है।

मान लीजिए आपने अपनी शीट में आखिरी 10 दिनों का क्यूमूलेटिव ऐवरेज किसी खाली कॉलम (जैसे G कॉलम) में ऊपर से नीचे नए से पुराने (घटते) क्रम में सेट कर लिया है (G2 में आज का औसत, G3 में कल का... और G11 में 10वें दिन का)।

अब अपने सिग्नल वाले सेल में यह फॉर्मूला लगाएं:

=IF(SUMPRODUCT(--(G2:G10 > G3:G11)) = 9, "BUY / AVERAGE OUT", "AVOID / HOLD")

लॉजिक: यह फॉर्मूला तभी "BUY / AVERAGE OUT" सिग्नल देगा जब लगातार 9 बार, आज का औसत कल के औसत से ज्यादा होगा। बीच में एक भी दिन औसत गिरा या बराबर रहा, तो यह आपको "AVOID / HOLD" ही बताएगा।

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रेडीमेड गूगल शीट (Copy the Template)

यदि आप इन फॉर्मूलों को खुद सेट करने से बचना चाहते हैं और सीधे बनी-बनाई शीट का उपयोग करना चाहते हैं, तो यह पूरी तरह से ऑटोमेटेड स्टॉक स्कैनर शीट आपके लिए तैयार है।

आप नीचे दिए गए लिंक पर क्लिक करके इस मास्टर शीट की कॉपी सुरक्षित रूप से अपने गूगल ड्राइव में सेव कर सकते हैं और इसका प्रयोग शुरू कर सकते हैं:

👉 यहाँ क्लिक करें: ऑटोमैटिक स्टॉक स्कैनर गूगल शीट कॉपी करें

निष्कर्ष: शेयर बाजार में पूंजी को बचाए रखना, मुनाफा कमाने से कहीं ज्यादा जरूरी है। केवल भाव गिरने पर बिना सोचे-समझे खरीदारी करने के बजाय, इस 'सिस्टमैटिक क्यूमूलेटिव ऐवरेज' टूल का उपयोग करें। यह आपको सही समय पर एंट्री दिलाकर आपके फंसे हुए पैसों को सुरक्षित रूप से बाहर निकालने में एक अचूक मार्गदर्शक का काम करेगा।

Related Video:-  https://youtu.be/hLYGIhMYO7M

PTC India Financial Services Limited Multibagger Penny Share 2020

Respected Readers,

Welcome again,

Today I give you my next recommendation for buying on 16 Jan 2020 to 31 Jan 2020  fortnight.

I again start my blog recommendations, and Par month 2 Recommendation will publish. The first recommendation will publish on the first day of every month, and the second recommendation will publish on 16 th day of every month.

So let us we start our research report on PTC India Financial Services Limited.

Recommendation Date:- 16.01.2020
Stock Name:- PTC India Financial Services Limited

NSE Code: PFS

BSE Code: 533344

SECTOR: Finance.

ISIN: INE560K01014

PTC India Financial Services Limited is a technically sound stock, 200 DMA of PTC India Financial Services Limited is 14.16, so at CMP 14.60, stock trading above his 200 DMA.

Why I Choose This stock:-

1. Net sale per share is 20.78 which is higher than CMP, So at CMP14.60 share traded at an undervalued or discounted price.

2. Book value of PTC India Financial Services Limited is 32.18
3. Dividend-paying stock, you can see past dividend history here:-https://www.bseindia.com/stock-share-price/ptc-india-financial-services-ltd/pfs/533344/corp-actions/

4. Year High=17.90 Year low=10.45, This ratio is below 2

5. Base Price ( 3 Year Average Price)=25.34 stock traded @14.60, which is 42.38 percent below from base price.

Here is the link for download last 3-year price data and graph (chart):-

3 Year Price Data And Graph PTC India Financial

6. Promoters Holding= 64.99 percent with no pledged stock. ( PTC India Ltd is the promoter of this company and NTPC, NHPC, Power Grid, etc promoters of PTC India..at last Govt of India is the promoter of NTPC, NHPC, etc.)

7. Face Value=10 rupees
8. EPS=2.87

9. P/E=5.08

Recommended Price, Target, Stop Loss=
We buy this stock with the STP-SIP method:- Before you buy this stock, please watch this video and follow the STP-SIP method for 25 % target in 1 to 2-year time frame.

Buying Price:-
For 16 Jan 2020 to 31 Jan 2020 our STP is 15.00

(watch this video to understand STP https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gREpTaV50bA)

Stop Loss:- Due to buying in the STP-SIP method, we do not use regular stop-loss, we continue our STP method until we got 25 % profit on average price.

My Research Terms Link:-

Mahesh Kaushik Research Terms

Earlier Recommendations:-

Here is the fortnights recommendations.
1. HPCL:- For 1 to 15 Dec 2019 I recommended HPCL, Read HPCL research report in this link:-
HPCL Target and Research Report
2. Hindalco:- For 16 to 31 Dec 2019 I recommended Hindalco read Hindalco Research report at this link:-
Hindalco Target and Research Report
3. Ceat Ltd:- For 1 to 15  Jan 2020 I recommended Ceat read Ceat research report at this link:-
Ceat Target and Research Report
Disclaimer:- This is not an advisory service to buy or sell. The contents of “this research report” are only for educational purposes. No liability is accepted for any content in “this research report.” The author is neither a registered stockbroker nor a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity, index or any other financial instrument at any time. The author recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of my blog. 13. Discloser:- I Mahesh Chander Kaushik, author of this research report is an existing research analyst and passed NISM certification for research analysts. I am also registered under SEBI(RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014 ( SEBI Registration Number INH 100000908 ) hereby disclose about my financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial interest:- 1  Me and my associates or relatives have not held any share of PTC India Financial Services Limited, so my personal interest is not included in this stock. 2. Me and my associates or relatives have not any actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more securities of the subject company ( PTC India Financial Services Limited). 3. Me and my associates or relatives have not any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report. 4. Me and my associates or relatives have not received any type of compensation from the subject company(PTC India Financial Services Limited ) in the past twelve months. 5. I am not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company (PTC India Financial Services Limited ). 6. I have been not engaged in market making activity for the subject company (PTC India Financial Services Limited ).

3 Multibagger Penny Stocks List For Buying In May 2018

Respected Readers,

Namaskar

This time I update 3 penny stocks in one list.

We Can Buy these stocks In May 2018 and hold for 25% to 200% return.

Holding time not sure It maybe 1 months to 3 months, or 1 year to 3 years.

I think most of my followers already read my book "The Winning Theory In Stock Market" where I told simple shopkeeper approach, In this approach, we buy small quantities of multiple stocks and hold them without any stop loss.

Read more details of my books from this link:-

My Books

So In May 2018 we watch these stocks and invest 5% of our monthly income in every stock. It is my investing style suppose you earn 50,000 per month then do not invest 5% of your monthly income means invest INR 2500 in each of these stocks.

( Hindi readers refer my book "Kese Pahuncha Abdul Stock Market Me Shunya Se Shikhar Tak")

As a custom of penny share blog whenever target of 25% to 200% will come I will update on this blog.

Read details of past profit booking here:-

Past Profit Booking Of  Penny Share

New readers who do not read my books yet please refer these research terms for more detail understanding of my theory:-

Research Terms Of Mahesh Kaushik

Here Is the 3 selected Penny Stocks For Buying In May 2018

1.Century Extrusions Ltd:-

Century Extrusions Limited (established in 1991) is promoted by Late Shri M. P. Jhunjhunwala, a first generation entrepreneur. The Company is one of India’s large pure play aluminium extrusion manufacturer. CEL’s production facility is located at Kharagpur (West Bengal) in eastern part of India, close to leading primary aluminium manufacturers in India. 
CMP: 5.50

Face Value: 1

BSE Code: 500083

Industry:-Aluminium

Net Sale Per Share: 22.74

Book Value: 4.94

Base Price: 4.04

200DMA:-5.37 ( Stock recently closed over his 200 DMA)

Last 3 Year Price And Graph:- Download here

Detail Technical Analysis Link:-Technical Analysis Of Century Extrusions Ltd

Detail Financial Performance Link:- Financial Performance Of Century Extrusions Ltd
Net Sales And Profits both increased in last 2 quarters

(in Cr.)	Dec-17	Sep-17	FY16-17
Revenue	60.27	52.40	181.89
Net Profit	0.97	0.82	1.22
EPS	0.12	0.10	0.15
Cash EPS	0.22	0.21	0.57
OPM %	2.94	3.51	2.80
NPM %	1.61	1.56	0.67

Promoters Holding:-52.04%

Promoters Pledged Holding:-Nil

Company Website:-http://www.centuryextrusions.com/

My Verdict:- Due to high net sale per share 22.74 and increasing revenue increasing profits this stock may be given multiple returns in coming 1 to 3 years. Stock recently closed over his 200 DMA so technically also sound for short term buying

2.Shree Rama Multi-Tech Ltd:-

Shree Rama Multi Tech Ltd is a rising Indian Company in the world of packaging industry with diversified portfolio such as: Tube Laminates – ABL and PBL Variety of Flexible Laminates Multilayer Tubes Monolayer Seamless Tubes Self-Adhesive Labels Paper/HIPS Cups Tarpaulin

CMP:-12.39

Face Value: 5

BSE Code:-532310

Industry:-Containers And Packaging

Net Sale Per Share: 21.01

Book Value: 1.43

Base Price: 10.34

200 DMA:- 13.92

Last 3 Year Price And Graph:-download here

Detail Technical Analysis Link:-Technical Analysis Of Shree Rama Multi Tech Ltd

Detail Financial Performance Link:- Financial Performance Of Shree Rama Multi TechLtd

(in Cr.)	Dec-17	Sep-17	FY16-17
Revenue	31.21	28.70	133.33
Net Profit	0.38	-1.29	-2.11
EPS	0.06	-0.20	-0.33
Cash EPS	0.50	0.12	1.56
OPM %	8.86	7.17	6.37
NPM %	1.23	-4.50	-1.58

Promoters Holding:-42.51%

Promoters Pledged Holding:-Nil

Company Website:-http://www.srmtl.com/

My Verdict:- Due to high net sale per share 21.01 and increasing revenue turnaround from loss to profit this stock may be given multiple returns in coming 1 to 3 years.If you want to buy for short term then please do not buy at CMP and wait untill price close over 200 DMA 13.92

3.Lloyds Metals And Energy Ltd:-

Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited. (LMEL), one of the biggest Sponge Iron manufacturers in Vidarbha region is a unit of Lloyds group. 

LMEL plant is located in Ghughus near chandrapur which offer us an easy accessibility for basic raw material inputs like Iron ore ,Non-Coking Coal and Dolomite/Limestone. 

LMEL has further gone for expansion by installing waste heat recovery based 30 MW Co-generation Power Plant in the year 2010 using waste heat from Kiln off gases being generated from the kilns while manufacturing Sponge Iron. 

CMP:-16

Face Value: 1

BSE Code:-512455

Industry:-Iron And Steel Power

Net Sale Per Share: 18.08

Book Value: 5.57

Base Price: 12.50, 

Last 3 Year Price And Graph:- Download here

200 DMA: -17.70

Detail Technical Analysis Link:-Technical Analysis Of Lloyed Metals And Energy Ltd

Detail Financial Performance Link:- Financial Performance Of Lloyed Metals And Energy Ltd

(in Cr.)	Mar-18	Dec-17	FY17-18
Revenue	109.09	115.55	423.27
Net Profit	9.91	1.57	17.03
EPS	0.45	0.07	0.75
Cash EPS	0.55	0.24	1.37
OPM %	11.30	4.65	7.26
NPM %	9.08	1.36	4.02

Promoters Holding: 63.14% and promoters increase their holding from 62.92% that's good.

Promoters Pledged Holding:-20.56%

Company Website:-http://lloyds.in/

My Verdict:- Due to huge jump in net profit and increasing promoters holding this stock may be given multiple returns in coming 1 to 3 years.If you want to buy for short term then please do not buy at CMP and wait untill price close over 200 DMA 17.70
Recent Update:- Bhageria Industries Ltd Research Reporet
Hindi Update:-Seema Portfolio Hindi

Disclaimer:- This is not an advisory service to buy or sell. The contents of “this research report” are only for educational purposes. No liability is accepted for any content in “this research report.” The author is neither a registered stockbroker nor a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity, index or any other financial instrument at any time.The author recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of my blog. 

Discloser:- I Mahesh Chander Kaushik author of this research report is an existing research analyst and passed NISM certification for research analysts. I am also registered with SEBI(RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014 ( SEBI Registration Number INH 100000908 ) hereby disclose about my financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial interest:- 1 Me and my associates or relatives have not held any share of above 3 companies so my personal interest is not included in this stocks. 2. Me and my associates or relatives have not any actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more securities of the subject companies ( above 3 companies). 3. Me and my associates or relatives have not any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report. 4. Me and my associates or relatives have not received any type of compensation from the subject company or companies(above 3 companies) in the past twelve months. 5. I am not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject companies ( above 3 companies). 6. I have been not engaged in market making activity for the subject companies (above 3 companies).